Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 1.360880 1.411791 1.464216 1.522382 1.585287 1.651464 1.726606
2025-12-28 1.302915 1.371903 1.445104 1.529007 1.623091 1.726032 1.848156
2026-01-04 1.266548 1.349143 1.438880 1.544491 1.666563 1.804751 1.975305
2026-01-11 1.223936 1.315387 1.416587 1.538212 1.682305 1.850139 2.064505
2026-01-18 1.191507 1.290514 1.401861 1.538225 1.703479 1.901195 2.162278
2026-01-25 1.148905 1.251476 1.368217 1.513222 1.692013 1.910454 2.206716
2026-02-01 1.119984 1.226809 1.349836 1.504826 1.699319 1.942160 2.281006
2026-02-08 1.093029 1.203142 1.331276 1.494745 1.703159 1.968635 2.349123
2026-02-15 1.068102 1.180802 1.313165 1.483952 1.704880 1.991568 2.413066
2026-02-22 1.052209 1.168592 1.306636 1.486948 1.723927 2.037869 2.513061
2026-03-01 1.024050 1.140517 1.279500 1.462419 1.705226 2.031144 2.533870
2026-03-08 1.002175 1.119468 1.260337 1.447242 1.698009 2.039468 2.577316
2026-03-15 0.981749 1.100072 1.243143 1.434607 1.694455 2.053833 2.633209
2026-03-22 0.973646 1.095623 1.244480 1.446058 1.724052 2.117110 2.772559
2026-03-29 0.968843 1.095034 1.250528 1.463748 1.762894 2.196215 2.946936
2026-04-05 0.955386 1.083099 1.241520 1.460655 1.771854 2.230536 3.047966
2026-04-12 0.944714 1.074368 1.236315 1.462388 1.787595 2.275986 3.173981
2026-04-19 0.924971 1.053577 1.214780 1.440861 1.768231 2.264665 3.192672
2026-04-26 0.912095 1.041308 1.204103 1.433982 1.770115 2.287296 3.278762
2026-05-03 0.899092 1.028577 1.192461 1.425306 1.768803 2.304411 3.355760
2026-05-10 0.886329 1.015879 1.180535 1.415804 1.765733 2.318234 3.427521
2026-05-17 0.878992 1.010039 1.177549 1.418755 1.781599 2.364591 3.573594
2026-05-24 0.862303 0.991677 1.157354 1.396522 1.757635 2.341208 3.564674